Serious Implications for Urban-Rural Dialogue
Jonathan Overpeck, University of Arizona

Excerpt from Program:
"Great advances have been made in our understanding of possible future global climate change. It is clear that both the 'greenhouse effect' and recent (20th century to present) 'global warming' are essentially facts, but there is still considerable uncertainty with regards to what this means for the future, and for people and landscapes of the Southwest. Interestingly, the western United States are warming faster than the global average. There have also been notable changes in spring snowpack across the West. These are just the changes that were predicted to occur, and they give us greater confidence in asserting that warming and snowpack changes will continue unless actions are taken to slow the cause of the warming.

"Temperature increases and change in snow fall alone could result in tighter water resources, as well as stresses to natural and managed vegetation. Decreases in rainfall are also a possible outcome of continued climate change. However, the biggest worry for the Southwest should be the likelihood of more frequent and prolonged drought. The on-going drought has demonstrated that elevated temperatures and drought are a difficult combination, particularly for vegetation, but also for water supplies. Measures need to be worked out to make sure that vulnerability to continued climate change is reduced, just as discussions on how to potentially slow climate change need to take place."

Presentation Outline:

• Global Climate Change
• Climate Change and the Southwest
• Drought
• Conclusion - The Science
• Conclusion - The Options